Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Burnley FC and Aston Villa FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Burnley FC | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| Draw (Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC) | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Aston Villa FC | 62% YES | 39% NO |
Burnley and Aston Villa will meet on 10 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Burnley victory at 17 per cent implied probability, reflecting the away side's historical disadvantage and Villa's recent competitive standing in the division. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools rather than a fixed model, meaning the 17 per cent figure shifts as traders adjust positions ahead of the settlement window closing on 10 May at 13:00 UTC.
Burnley's win probability must be contextualised against their recent league performance and head-to-head record. Over the past three seasons, Burnley has struggled with consistency at the top level, whilst Aston Villa have consolidated a stronger mid-table to upper-mid-table position. Home advantage typically accounts for 3–4 percentage points in Premier League pricing; the 17 per cent here suggests the market views Villa as clear favourites, though not prohibitive ones.
Traders should monitor team news in the final weeks before the fixture, particularly injury updates to key players and any managerial changes. Villa's European commitments in the 2025–26 season, if they qualify for continental competition, could influence squad rotation decisions. Burnley's form in April will also signal whether they are mounting a promotion push or consolidating lower-league status, fundamentally altering the tactical approach both sides bring to the match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$187K in lifetime turnover and $2.8M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $163K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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