Trade: AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Tuesday, May 19, 2026 between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $9K
- Total Volume
- $12K
- 24h Volume
- $10K
- Open Interest
- $10K
Market outcomes
| AFC Bournemouth | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Draw (AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC) | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| Manchester City FC | 68% YES | 33% NO |
Market context
Manchester City will travel to the Vitality Stadium to face Bournemouth on Tuesday, 19 May 2026, in a Premier League fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Bournemouth victory at 20 per cent implied probability, reflecting the substantial gap in recent form and league position between the two sides. This probability is formed through active trading across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread between bid and ask orders indicating the market's confidence in City's dominance.
Historically, Bournemouth's record against the established "big six" clubs has been poor. Over the past five seasons, the Cherries have won fewer than 15 per cent of matches against Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea combined. City's consistency in the Premier League—including multiple title wins and sustained top-four finishes—has established them as heavy favourites in nearly all fixtures. The 20 per cent probability for Bournemouth aligns with typical odds for mid-table sides facing City at home, though Bournemouth's recent trajectory will influence whether this figure shifts.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries to key City players, particularly in midfield and attack, as absences have historically narrowed the gap in such matchups. Bournemouth's form in the weeks preceding 19 May will also matter; a strong run of results could shift sentiment. Additionally, any changes to managerial stability at either club or unexpected fixture congestion affecting City's preparation could move the probability. Settlement occurs immediately after full-time, with no scope for amendments post-match.
Wikipedia Context
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AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth is a professional football club based in Kings Park, Boscombe, a suburb of Bournemouth, Dorset, England. The club compete in the Premier League, the top tier of English football. Formed in 1899 as Boscombe, the club adopted their current name in 1971. Nicknamed "The Cherries", and commonly referred to as Bournemouth, they have played their ho
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AFC Bournemouth Women
AFC Bournemouth Women, commonly referred to as just Bournemouth, is an English semi-professional women's football club based in Dorset, England. The club plays in the FA Women's National League, Southern Premier Division, the third tier of English women's football, after winning promotion in the previous (2024–25) season.
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AFC Bournemouth Under-21s and Academy
AFC Bournemouth Under-21s and Academy are the youth teams of Bournemouth. The reserve team is made up of under-21 players and is effectively Bournemouth's second-string side. They play in the Professional Development League Group B. The under-18 players, among other younger age groups, make up the Academy team. They play in the Youth Alliance League's Southw
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List of AFC Bournemouth seasons
This is a list of seasons played by AFC Bournemouth in English football, from 1903 to the most recent completed season. The club was originally known as Boscombe F.C.. The exact date of the club's foundation is not known, but there is proof that it was formed in the autumn of 1899 out of the remains of the older Boscombe St. John's Lads’ Institute F.C.. In t
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$12K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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