Trade: Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026 between Aston Villa FC and Liverpool FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1.8M
- Total Volume
- $30K
- 24h Volume
- $12K
- Open Interest
- $21K
Market outcomes
| Aston Villa FC | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Draw (Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC) | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Liverpool FC | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Market context
Aston Villa will host Liverpool in a Premier League fixture on Sunday, 17 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Villa victory at 32 per cent implied probability, reflecting Liverpool as favourites in this matchup. The settlement window closes at 11:30 UTC on the day of the fixture.
Historically, Liverpool have held a structural advantage in head-to-head records against Villa over the past decade, winning roughly two-thirds of their encounters. However, Villa's recent trajectory—including their 2024–25 campaign under Unai Emery—has narrowed the gap considerably. The 32 per cent probability for a Villa win sits broadly in line with comparable fixtures where the home side faces a stronger away opponent but retains meaningful chances. For context, home advantage in the Premier League typically adds 3–5 percentage points to win probability; the current odds suggest the market is pricing Villa's home ground benefit against Liverpool's recent form and squad depth.
Traders should monitor team news through May, particularly injury status for key players on both sides. Liverpool's fixture congestion in the run-in and any European commitments will affect squad rotation decisions. Villa's form in the weeks preceding 17 May, alongside any managerial or tactical adjustments, will shape how the order book reprices. Recent betting markets and official team sheets released closer to kick-off will likely trigger order flow shifts on Polymarket as new information crystallises.
Wikipedia Context
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Aston Villa F.C.Aston Villa Football Club is a professional football club based in Aston, Birmingham, England. It was founded in 1874. Its team compete in the Premier League, the top tier of English football, and have played at their home ground, Villa Park, since 1897. Aston Villa is one of the oldest and most successful clubs in England, having won the Football League Fir
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Aston Villa F.C. Under-21s and Academy
The Aston Villa Under-21s, formerly known as Aston Villa Reserves and Aston Villa Under-23s, are the most senior youth development team of Aston Villa and compete in Premier League 2, the EFL Trophy and the Birmingham Senior Cup in the 2025–26 season. The team plays its home games at Aston Villa's training ground, Bodymoor Heath and occasionally Villa Park.
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Aston Villa W.F.C.
Aston Villa Women Football Club is the women's football team of Aston Villa, currently playing in the Women's Super League. The club has been in existence since 1973. Originally titled Solihull F.C., the team affiliated to Aston Villa in 1989, becoming Villa Aztecs, and became the official Aston Villa women's side in 1996. The club have a senior team, a rese
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Aston Villa F.C. in the 1880s
The 1880s was a decade that saw Aston Villa F.C. go from a small club to one that could challenge most teams in the country at the time. It also saw their most significant contribution to the game across the globe, with William McGregor creating the world's first Football League.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$30K in lifetime turnover and $1.8M of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $12K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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