Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to which team hits the greater number of sixes in the cricket match between USA and Vanuatu scheduled for 2026-04-27 in T20 Challenge Trophy, Women. This market resolves according to the finalized match statistics as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to USA will be considered correct if USA is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Vanuatu.The outcome corresponding to Vanuatu will be considered correct if Vanuatu is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than USA. If both teams record the same number of sixes, the market will resolve to "Draw".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| USA | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| VUT | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The USA and Vanuatu women's cricket teams will compete in the T20 Challenge Trophy on 27 April 2026, with this market tracking which side strikes more sixes during their match. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for a USA victory in six-hitting, suggesting the market has assigned negligible likelihood to the Americans out-hitting their opponents in this metric.
Historical context for women's T20 cricket shows significant variance in six-hitting rates depending on opposition quality and pitch conditions. The USA women's team, whilst developing, has competed in ICC events with moderate batting aggression; Vanuatu's participation in international T20 structures remains limited, with fewer documented fixtures against comparable opposition. Direct historical matchups between these sides are sparse, making precedent-based forecasting difficult. The 0% probability likely reflects either data scarcity or a market assumption that Vanuatu will field a substantially weaker batting unit, though this warrants scrutiny given the limited public information available on both teams' recent form.
Traders should monitor official squad announcements from both cricket boards in the weeks preceding the match, as player availability and team composition significantly influence aggressive batting strategies. Pitch reports from the venue on match day will prove material—surfaces favouring pace bowling typically suppress six-hitting opportunities. ESPN Cricinfo's live coverage will provide real-time six counts, essential for settlement verification. The settlement window closes 4 May 2026, allowing traders to observe early match conditions before the market closes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu - Most Sixes" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$475 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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