Sports

Trade: T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu

Opened 26 April 2026 · Settles 4 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the cricket match between USA and Vanuatu scheduled for April 27 2026 in T20 Challenge Trophy, Women. This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $36K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $34K

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Market outcomes

T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu	100% YES	0% NO
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu - Who wins the toss?	100% YES	0% NO
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu - Completed match?	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

The USA women's cricket team faces Vanuatu in a T20 Challenge Trophy match scheduled for 27 April 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for a USA victory, indicating the market perceives this as a near-certain outcome. This pricing emerges from fundamental asymmetries in women's cricket development between the two nations, where the USA has invested substantially in domestic infrastructure and international competition whilst Vanuatu remains an emerging cricket programme.

Historical context for women's T20 cricket shows significant performance gaps between established and developing nations. The USA has competed in ICC Women's T20 World Cups and regional tournaments with competitive squads, whilst Vanuatu's participation in international women's cricket remains limited. When comparable mismatches have occurred in T20 Challenge events, favourites at this probability level have typically delivered expected results, though weather disruptions and unexpected individual performances occasionally create variance in outcomes.

Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability and squad composition as the April fixture approaches. Injury updates to key USA batters or bowlers could shift market pricing, though such movements would likely remain modest given the current probability ceiling. Venue conditions at the scheduled ground and any last-minute fixture changes warrant attention. The settlement window closes 4 May 2026, providing a brief window post-match for result confirmation via ESPNcricinfo before market resolution.

Wikipedia Context

The Challenge (TV series)
The Challenge is a reality competition show on MTV that is a spin-off of two of the network's reality shows, The Real World and Road Rules and originally featured alumni from these two shows. Casting for The Challenge has expanded over the years to include contestants who debuted on The Challenge itself, and other MTV franchises. Starting in 2018, new contes
The Challenge: Vets & New Threats
The Challenge: Vets & New Threats is the forty-first season of the MTV reality competition series The Challenge, featuring alumni from Road Rules, The Real World, The Challenge, Survivor, Love Island, Are You the One?, Big Brother, WWE, Too Hot to Handle, Cheer, Married at First Sight (UK), Canada's Ultimate Challenge, and boxing competing for a share of $50
The Challenge XXX: Dirty 30
The Challenge XXX: Dirty 30 is the thirtieth season of the MTV reality competition series, The Challenge. It was filmed in Colombia during May and June 2017, with alumni from The Real World, Road Rules, The Challenge, and Are You the One? competing. Jonathan Murray, Gil Goldschein, Scott Freeman, and Fred Birckhead were the executive producers, with Ryan Smi
The Challenge: Final Reckoning
The Challenge: Final Reckoning is the thirty-second season of the MTV reality competition series The Challenge. This season featured alumni from The Real World, Road Rules, The Challenge, Are You the One?, the U.S. version of Big Brother, and the U.K. television shows Ex on the Beach and Geordie Shore, competing along with, for the first time, alumni from Ba

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$36K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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