Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the cricket match between India and Afghanistan scheduled for June 6 2026 in Test Series India vs Afghanistan. This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| India | 93% YES | 7% NO |
| Afghanistan | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Draw | 6% YES | 95% NO |
India and Afghanistan are scheduled to contest a Test match on 6 June 2026 as part of a bilateral series. The market currently reflects an 88% implied probability of an India victory, with this probability derived from the current order book depth on Polymarket. This pricing reflects India's historical dominance in Test cricket against Afghanistan, a side that has played relatively few matches at this level since gaining Test status in 2018.
Afghanistan has won only two Test matches in their history, both against Zimbabwe, and has never defeated India in any format. India's Test record remains substantially stronger across all conditions, with a larger pool of experienced players and established systems. However, Afghanistan's recent performances in limited-overs cricket have improved markedly, and their Test squad has gradually developed through matches against established nations. The 88% probability suggests the market is pricing in India as clear favourites whilst acknowledging a non-trivial tail risk of an upset.
Traders should monitor squad announcements from both boards, expected in the weeks preceding the match, as injury absences or selection changes could materially shift the probability. Weather forecasts for the venue will become relevant closer to the match date, as conditions significantly influence Test outcomes. Any recent form data from either side's domestic competitions or warm-up matches in May 2026 will provide updated information on player fitness and current performance levels. The settlement window closes on 13 June 2026, allowing resolution within days of the scheduled completion date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$411 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $411 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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