Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the cricket match between Bangladesh and Pakistan scheduled for May 7 2026 in Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan. This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Bangladesh | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Pakistan | 54% YES | 47% NO |
Bangladesh and Pakistan will contest a Test match on 7 May 2026 as part of their bilateral series. The market currently reflects a 47% implied probability of a Bangladesh victory, with the settlement determined by the official result published on ESPNcricinfo. The Polymarket order book is pricing this fixture with meaningful two-way interest, suggesting traders are genuinely uncertain about the outcome rather than expressing a consensus view.
Historically, Bangladesh has improved substantially in Test cricket over the past decade, moving from perennial underdogs to a competitive outfit capable of beating established sides. However, Pakistan remains the stronger team in this format, with superior depth in batting and bowling. Head-to-head records show Pakistan holding a significant advantage in Test encounters, though Bangladesh has claimed occasional victories in recent years. The current 47% probability reflects Bangladesh's genuine competitive capability whilst acknowledging Pakistan's structural advantages—a meaningful shift from the dismissive odds such a fixture might have attracted a decade ago.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding squad selection and injury status, particularly Pakistan's fast bowling contingent and Bangladesh's batting form leading into May. Venue conditions for the match location will influence preparation strategies and pitch expectations. Recent domestic cricket performance in both nations' domestic competitions will provide signals about form and confidence levels. Any scheduling changes or logistical disruptions to the bilateral series would also warrant attention, though the May 2026 date remains sufficiently distant that such developments remain speculative at present.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $932 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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