Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Punjab Kings and Delhi Capitals scheduled for 2026-05-11 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Punjab Kings will be considered correct if Punjab Kings is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Delhi Capitals will be considered correct if Delhi Capitals is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| PUN | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Draw | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| DEL | 21% YES | 80% NO |
Punjab Kings and Delhi Capitals will contest an IPL match on 11 May 2026, with this market requiring both the coin toss outcome and final match result to align with a single team. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 27% implied probability for a YES resolution, meaning traders are pricing roughly a one-in-four chance that Punjab Kings wins both the toss and the match. This combined probability sits substantially lower than either event in isolation would suggest, reflecting the multiplicative nature of two independent outcomes needing to align.
Historical IPL data shows toss outcomes carry minimal predictive weight for match results; teams winning the toss win the subsequent match at rates approximating 50%, with venue-specific conditions and squad composition driving outcomes far more substantially. The 27% probability currently priced suggests the market is weighting Punjab Kings' standalone match-winning chances at approximately 54%, implying the toss component itself carries near-neutral informational value. Comparable double-outcome markets in cricket typically show probabilities clustering around the product of individual event likelihoods when teams are evenly matched.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates in the fortnight preceding the match, as both franchises' recent form and available personnel will materially affect match-winning probabilities. Weather forecasts for the scheduled venue will influence toss strategy and subsequent team selection decisions. Recent IPL standings and head-to-head records between these franchises, alongside any changes to playing conditions or venue characteristics, represent the primary catalysts affecting the probability distribution currently reflected in the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: