Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Chinese Super League game, scheduled for Tuesday, May 19, 2026 between Qingdao Xihaian FC and Beijing Guoan FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Qingdao Xihaian FC | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Draw (Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC) | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Beijing Guoan FC | 35% YES | 66% NO |
Qingdao Xihaian FC will face Beijing Guoan FC in a Chinese Super League fixture on Tuesday, 19 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (interpreted as an Xihaian victory) at 32%, reflecting a market-implied probability that Beijing Guoan enters as clear favourites. This probability has formed through recent trading activity and reflects the aggregate assessment of participants holding positions across the book.
Beijing Guoan has historically dominated fixtures against Xihaian, winning the majority of their recent encounters in the Super League. Xihaian, despite investment and roster improvements in recent seasons, has struggled to consistently compete against the capital's established sides. The 32% probability aligns with historical win rates for the visiting Qingdao side in comparable matchups against top-tier Beijing opposition, though home advantage at Xihaian's stadium provides marginal uplift to their chances relative to neutral-ground encounters.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries or suspensions in the fortnight preceding the match, particularly for Beijing Guoan's key attacking or defensive personnel. Recent fixture congestion in the Super League schedule may affect squad rotation decisions. Additionally, any managerial changes or tactical shifts announced by either club could shift the probability meaningfully. Weather conditions in Qingdao on match day—particularly wind or rain affecting pitch conditions—have historically influenced outcomes in this fixture, though such factors typically emerge closer to kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.csl-china.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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