Trade: Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Chinese Super League game, scheduled for May 15 at 8:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $65K
- Total Volume
- $139
- 24h Volume
- $16
- Open Interest
- $115
Market outcomes
| Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 84% YES | 16% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
Market context
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Hainiu are scheduled to meet in the Chinese Super League on 15 May 2026 at 08:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES side at 44%, reflecting modest confidence in the outcome being priced. This probability has formed across the available liquidity, with traders balancing fixture difficulty, recent form, and squad availability against the settlement window closing on 15 May at 12:00 UTC.
Beijing Guoan enters the 2026 season as a historically stronger franchise with greater financial resources and a larger talent pool, though their competitive position relative to Qingdao has narrowed in recent seasons. Qingdao Hainiu has invested substantially and finished mid-table in recent campaigns, making them a credible mid-tier opponent rather than an outlier. The 44% probability suggests the market views this as a relatively even fixture or leans slightly towards Guoan, consistent with home advantage and historical precedent in Chinese Super League matchups between clubs of similar recent standing.
Traders should monitor squad news and injury reports in the fortnight before the fixture, particularly regarding key attacking or defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the weeks prior—whether either side faces cup competitions or midweek league matches—will affect rotation and fatigue levels. Recent form in April and early May will be material; a run of wins or losses immediately before 15 May typically shifts probabilities on Polymarket's order book as new information arrives.
Wikipedia Context
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Beijing Guoan F.C.Beijing Guoan Football Club, known in AFC competitions as Beijing FC, is a Chinese professional football club based in Beijing, that competes in the Chinese Super League, the top tier of Chinese football. Beijing Guoan plays its home matches at the Workers' Stadium, located within Chaoyang District. In early 2021, the shareholders changed from the real estat
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Beijing Guoan 9–1 Shanghai Shenhua
A 1997 Chinese Jia-A League round 10 fixture was contested at the old Workers' Stadium in Beijing between hosts Beijing Guoan and the visiting Shanghai Shenhua on 20 July 1997. Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua were both established teams in the Chinese Jia-A League, who regularly occupied high league positions in the years before. The match was the first m
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Beijing Guoan Talent Singapore FCBeijing Guoan Talent Singapore Football Club was a Chinese professional football club which was formed to play as a foreign team in Singapore's 2010 S.League. The club was a satellite team of the Chinese Super League club Beijing Guoan F.C. Players from Beijing Guoan's youth teams made up its S.League squad. Beijing Guoan (Singapore) became the ninth foreign
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Beijing Guoan (Superleague Formula team)Beijing Guoan Superleague Formula team is the racing team of Beijing Guoan, a football team that competes in China in the Chinese Super League. The Beijing Guoan racing team competes in the Superleague Formula. They are operated by Alan Docking Racing. They would not return until 2010.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.csl-china.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$139 in lifetime turnover and $65K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $16 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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