Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Total corners markets for the Bundesliga game between 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 and 1. FSV Mainz 05, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
On 16 May 2026, 1. FC Heidenheim will host 1. FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga fixture. The market is pricing the probability of exceeding a corners threshold at 53% YES on Polymarket's order book, reflecting modest consensus that the match will generate sufficient set-piece opportunities. Settlement occurs at 13:30 UTC, approximately four hours after kick-off at 14:30 CEST.
Bundesliga corner totals typically range between 8 and 12 per match, with variance depending on team possession profiles and defensive setup. Heidenheim's 2024–25 campaign showed a tendency towards direct play and counter-attacking, whilst Mainz favours possession-based football that often generates corner situations through sustained pressure. Historical head-to-head meetings between these sides have produced corner counts spanning 7 to 14, suggesting the threshold under consideration sits near the season median. The current 53% probability indicates the market perceives marginal odds, with neither outcome commanding strong conviction.
Key variables for traders include team news announcements regarding injuries to key midfielders or fullbacks, which directly influence crossing volume and set-piece frequency. Mainz's recent fixture congestion and travel schedule may affect pressing intensity. Weather conditions on match day—wind speed in particular—can suppress or amplify corner accumulation. Polymarket's order book depth will shift as these factors crystallise in the days preceding the match, with late-week team sheets and official lineups typically triggering repricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 - Total Corners" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$42 in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $42 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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