Trade: PFC Levski Sofia vs. PFC CSKA Sofia - Exact Score

Market context

PFC Levski Sofia and PFC CSKA Sofia will meet in the Bulgaria Parva Liga on 16 May 2026. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. Any score not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score." The current order book on Polymarket implies a 10% probability for the specific outcome in question, reflecting the combined weight of all listed exact-score possibilities and the relative liquidity across the book.

Exact-score markets in domestic football leagues typically carry low individual probabilities because the number of possible outcomes is large—most matches produce one of roughly 15–20 common scorelines, but the tail extends considerably. Historical data from similar Eastern European league fixtures shows that when two evenly matched sides meet, the modal outcomes cluster around 1–1, 1–0, 2–1, and 0–0, each capturing 8–12% of occurrences. The 10% implied probability here suggests traders are pricing this particular scoreline as moderately likely relative to the full distribution of possibilities.

Key variables affecting the match outcome include squad fitness and availability in the final weeks of the season, recent form trajectories of both clubs, and any managerial changes announced before the fixture. Levski and CSKA have historically produced competitive encounters; recent Bulgarian Parva Liga standings and team news closer to mid-May will clarify whether either side enters with injury concerns or motivation shifts. Weather conditions on the day and referee assignment, whilst less predictable, can influence scoring patterns in late-season matches.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://bfunion.bg/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "PFC Levski Sofia vs. PFC CSKA Sofia - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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