Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Saturday, May 30, 2026 between Avaí FC and Criciúma EC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Avaí FC | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Draw (Avaí FC vs. Criciúma EC) | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Criciúma EC | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Avaí FC and Criciúma EC will meet in Brazil's Serie B on Saturday, 30 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices YES at 47%, reflecting near-parity expectations for either side to emerge victorious in this regional matchup. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, allowing traders to adjust positions until kickoff.
Both clubs operate within Brazil's second tier, where historical performance data and recent form carry substantial weight. Avaí has cycled between Serie A and Serie B over the past decade, whilst Criciúma has similarly experienced volatility in league placement. Head-to-head records in recent Serie B campaigns show competitive encounters, with neither side holding a decisive statistical edge. The 47% probability suggests the market is pricing this as a genuine toss-up, though the remaining 53% distributed across draws and Criciúma victory indicates slight lean toward the away side or a stalemate outcome.
Traders should monitor team news releases and injury confirmations in the week preceding the match, particularly regarding key attacking or defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the Brazilian calendar—with mid-week commitments potentially affecting squad rotation—can shift probability meaningfully. Recent form tables and points-per-game metrics from the current Serie B season will provide the most reliable baseline for assessing whether the current 47% reflects genuine uncertainty or mispricing relative to underlying performance trends.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Avaí FC vs. Criciúma EC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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