Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Bolivia LFPB game, scheduled for May 9 at 3:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CDT Real Oruro (-1.5) | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| FC Universitario (-1.5) | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| CDT Real Oruro (-2.5) | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| FC Universitario (-2.5) | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 78% YES | 23% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
CDT Real Oruro and FC Universitario are scheduled to meet on 9 May in the Bolivian LFPB (Liga de Fútbol Profesional Boliviana). The match kicks off at 3:00 PM ET, with settlement determined by the final result. Current order-book activity on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, indicating substantial two-sided interest and relatively tight pricing around the midpoint.
Bolivian domestic football exhibits considerable variance in form and fixture congestion, particularly in the closing weeks of the season. Real Oruro and Universitario occupy different positions in the league table, which historically correlates with team stability and injury management. Recent seasons show that mid-table sides often experience sharper swings in performance than established contenders, making probability assessment sensitive to squad news and recent results. Comparable LFPB fixtures in May have typically reflected 45–55% ranges for secondary outcomes, suggesting the current 48% sits within normal volatility bands for this fixture type.
Traders should monitor official LFPB announcements regarding team lineups and injury updates, typically released 24–48 hours before kickoff. Weather conditions in Oruro—notably altitude effects at 3,706 metres—can influence match dynamics and are worth tracking in local forecasts. Fixture scheduling changes, whilst uncommon this late in the season, remain a remote risk. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 9 May, allowing minimal post-match arbitrage opportunity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://lfpb.com.bo/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CDT Real Oruro vs. FC Universitario - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$32 in lifetime turnover and $216 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://lfpb.com.bo/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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