Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Bolivia LFPB game between Club Aurora and CDT RealOruro, scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Club Aurora vs. CDT RealOruro match originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-3 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-3 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
Club Aurora will face CDT RealOruro in a Bolivia LFPB fixture on 12 May 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any scoreline not explicitly listed resolving to "Any Other Score." The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting meaningful uncertainty around whether the specified exact score will materialise. This probability formation reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise match outcomes in Bolivian football, where variance in individual performance and tactical execution typically produces a wide distribution of possible results.
Historical patterns in LFPB matches show that exact-score markets tend to fragment probability across numerous outcomes, with no single scoreline commanding more than 15–20% of total probability mass in most fixtures. Club Aurora and CDT RealOruro's recent form, head-to-head records, and squad composition will determine whether certain scorelines cluster around higher likelihood. The 49% probability suggests the market is pricing a moderately likely outcome, though traders should verify whether this reflects a genuinely high-probability scoreline or whether liquidity concentration has skewed the order book.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official LFPB communications for injury updates, suspension confirmations, and any fixture rescheduling announcements prior to settlement. Weather conditions in Bolivia and late tactical adjustments announced on match day can shift expected goal distributions. The settlement window closes at 00:00 UTC on 13 May 2026, allowing only the match result itself to determine resolution; postponements would extend the market until completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://lfpb.com.bo/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Club Aurora vs. CDT RealOruro - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $444 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://lfpb.com.bo/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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