Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026 between 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Draw (1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern) | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 23% YES | 78% NO |
On 17 May 2026, 1. FC Magdeburg will travel to face 1. FC Kaiserslautern in a 2. Bundesliga fixture. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 53% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting near-even odds between the two clubs. This probability has formed through active trading across the market's depth, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating moderate liquidity and genuine uncertainty about the result.
Magdeburg and Kaiserslautern occupy different positions within the second-tier landscape. Kaiserslautern, a historically prominent club with multiple Bundesliga seasons, typically commands stronger home advantage and squad depth. Magdeburg, whilst competitive, has shown more volatility in recent seasons. Historical head-to-head records and recent form trajectories in the 2. Bundesliga suggest that home advantage carries material weight in this division, though neither side has established dominance sufficient to shift the probability dramatically away from parity.
Traders should monitor team news through late April and early May, particularly injury reports affecting key players and any managerial changes. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season may affect squad rotation decisions. The timing of this match—late in the campaign—means final standings pressure could influence tactical approach. Recent form in the weeks preceding 17 May will be critical; a run of wins or losses immediately beforehand typically shifts market pricing. Polymarket's order book will reflect these developments as they emerge, with the 53% mark likely to move if either club experiences significant personnel disruptions or unexpected results in the lead-up to kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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