Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for May 19 at 11:00AM ET: If the Virtus Bologna win, the market will resolve to "Virtus Bologna". If the Aquila Basket Trento win, the market will resolve to "Aquila Basket Trento". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Virtus Bologna vs. Aquila Basket Trento | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Virtus Bologna and Aquila Basket Trento will contest a Serie A basketball match on 19 May at 11:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating traders assess both sides as evenly matched on available information. Settlement occurs on 26 May at 15:00 UTC, allowing a week post-match for result confirmation.
Bologna finished the 2024–25 regular season as one of Italy's strongest sides, consistently competing for playoff positioning, whilst Trento has operated as a mid-table competitor in recent campaigns. Historical matchups between these clubs show Bologna holding a statistical edge, though Trento's home-court advantage in certain fixtures has occasionally produced competitive results. The even probability suggests the market is pricing in either a neutral venue, significant roster changes, or genuine uncertainty about form heading into late May.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability and injury status in the fortnight before the fixture. Fixture congestion—whether either side faces fixture pile-up from playoff commitments—could affect squad rotation and performance. Weather or venue changes, whilst uncommon in indoor basketball, remain technical settlement risks. The one-week settlement window provides adequate time for official league confirmation, though postponement clauses mean the market could remain open if the match is rescheduled beyond the initial date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.flashscoreusa.com/basketball/italy/lega-a. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Virtus Bologna vs. Aquila Basket Trento" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $114 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.flashscoreusa.com/basketball/italy/lega-a. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: