Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Liga Endesa game, scheduled for May 17 at 11:00AM ET: If the Valencia win, the market will resolve to "Valencia". If the Bilbao Basket win, the market will resolve to "Bilbao Basket". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Valencia and Bilbao Basket will contest a Liga Endesa match on 17 May at 11:00 AM ET. The market currently reflects a 50-50 split across Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders view this fixture as a genuine toss-up. Settlement occurs on 24 May at 15:00 UTC, with resolution determined by final score including overtime. Should the fixture be postponed, the market remains open until completion; cancellation without rescheduling triggers a 50-50 split resolution.
Liga Endesa standings and recent form provide the baseline for interpreting current odds. Valencia finished the 2024–25 regular season in mid-table, whilst Bilbao Basket has shown inconsistent results typical of mid-tier Spanish basketball clubs. Historical head-to-head records between these sides show competitive matchups without a dominant pattern, which explains why the crowd has settled on even odds rather than favouring either team. Late-season Liga Endesa fixtures often feature rotation and fatigue considerations, particularly for clubs managing playoff positioning.
Traders should monitor squad availability in the fortnight before the fixture, as injuries to key players can shift win probability materially. Playoff seeding implications may also affect team motivation if either side has already secured or been eliminated from postseason contention. Weather or venue-related postponement risks are minimal for indoor basketball, though administrative scheduling changes remain possible in European competitions. Official team announcements regarding roster status typically emerge 48–72 hours before fixture time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.acb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $98 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.acb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: