Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Japan B League game, scheduled for May 3 at 1:05AM ET: If the Hiroshima Dragonflies win, the market will resolve to "Hiroshima Dragonflies". If the Toyama Grouses win, the market will resolve to "Toyama Grouses". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hiroshima Dragonflies vs. Toyama Grouses | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Japan B League will host a matchup between Hiroshima Dragonflies and Toyama Grouses on 3 May at 1:05 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for a Hiroshima victory, indicating that traders are pricing in an extremely low likelihood of the Dragonflies winning this fixture. This extreme skew suggests either substantial confidence in Toyama's superiority or minimal liquidity in the market, which can distort pricing significantly in low-volume prediction markets.
Hiroshima and Toyama occupy different competitive tiers within Japan's professional basketball landscape. Toyama has historically been a stronger franchise in the B League, with more consistent playoff appearances and a deeper roster. Hiroshima has faced relegation pressures in recent seasons, which contextualises why traders might assign near-zero probability to their victory. However, single-game outcomes in basketball remain inherently volatile; upsets occur regularly even when one team is substantially favoured.
Traders should monitor team roster announcements, injury reports, and any schedule changes between now and the settlement window closing on 10 May. Recent form data, including both teams' performance in their final regular-season matches, will provide concrete indicators of current competitive standing. The early morning fixture time (1:05 AM ET) may also affect player availability or performance levels. Any postponement or cancellation would trigger the market's contingency provisions, extending the settlement window until the game concludes or resolving 50-50 if cancelled without a make-up date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hiroshima Dragonflies vs. Toyama Grouses" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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