Trade: Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for May 12 at 7:35AM ET: If the Beijing Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Beijing Ducks". If the Guangdong Southern Tigers win, the market will resolve to "Guangdong Southern Tigers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
- $934
- 24h Volume
- $934
- Open Interest
- $827
Market outcomes
| Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers | 76% YES | 25% NO |
Market context
The Chinese Basketball Association matchup between Beijing Ducks and Guangdong Southern Tigers is scheduled for 12 May, with settlement occurring by 19 May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability favouring Beijing, suggesting traders assess the Ducks as clear favourites for this fixture. The spread indicates meaningful conviction rather than marginal preference, though the settlement window extends a week beyond the scheduled game date to accommodate any postponement scenarios.
Beijing has historically dominated regular-season encounters against Guangdong in recent CBA campaigns, winning the majority of direct matchups over the past three seasons. The Tigers, whilst competitive, have typically finished below Beijing in the standings and head-to-head records. This historical pattern provides substantial grounding for the current probability, though CBA form can shift considerably during playoff periods or late-season stretches when rotations and intensity fluctuate. Recent roster changes or injury updates would materially affect the assessment.
Traders should monitor official CBA announcements regarding team availability and any schedule adjustments in the days preceding the fixture. Guangdong's recent performance trajectory and Beijing's injury status represent key catalysts; a significant absence from either squad could shift the probability meaningfully. Weather or venue complications affecting the scheduled time slot could trigger postponement, which would keep the market open under the stated rules. The seven-day settlement window provides buffer for such contingencies, though cancellation without rescheduling would resolve the market at 50-50.
Wikipedia Context
-
Beijing DucksThe Beijing Shougang Ducks, also known as Beijing Shougang or Beijing Ducks, officially named Beijing BAIC Basketball Club, are a professional basketball team based in Beijing, China, which plays in the North Division of the Chinese Basketball Association. The Shougang Corporation is the club's corporate sponsor while its mascot is a duck.
-
Beijing BucksThe Beijing Bucks are a Chinese professional men's basketball club based in Beijing, playing in the National Basketball League (China) (NBL). Since 2018 the team has been owned by the CITIC Guoan Group.
-
Peking duckPeking duck is a dish from Beijing that has been prepared since the Imperial era. The meat is characterized by its thin, crispy skin, with authentic versions of the dish serving mostly the skin and little meat, sliced in front of the diners by the cook. Ducks bred especially for the dish are slaughtered after 65 days and seasoned before being roasted in a cl
-
Beijing Rocks
Beijing Rocks is a 2001 Hong Kong film directed by award-winning director Mabel Cheung about the rock and roll music scene in Beijing. Starring Shu Qi and Daniel Wu, it was nominated for five Hong Kong Film Awards including Best Picture and Best Cinematography.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.flashscore.com/basketball/china/cba. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 76% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $132 if YES resolves true — a 32% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$934 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $934 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 76%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.flashscore.com/basketball/china/cba. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: