Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Turkey BSL game, scheduled for May 2 at 11:00AM ET: If the Tofas win, the market will resolve to "Tofas". If the Karsiyaka win, the market will resolve to "Karsiyaka". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tofas vs. Karsiyaka | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Tofas and Karsiyaka are set to compete in a Turkish Basketball Super League (BSL) fixture on 2 May at 11:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting traders are pricing in near-certainty of either a Tofas or Karsiyaka victory. This extreme probability typically emerges when one outcome dominates market positioning or when liquidity concentrates heavily on a single side, though the binary structure means one team must prevail unless the match is cancelled outright.
Historical BSL matchups between these clubs provide context for evaluating the current pricing. Tofas, based in Bursa, and Karsiyaka, from Izmir, represent mid-to-upper tier Turkish basketball programmes with competitive records. Recent seasons have seen both clubs compete for playoff positioning, with outcomes often reflecting home-court advantage and squad depth. The settlement window extending to 9 May allows a week beyond the scheduled fixture for any postponement resolution, a relevant consideration given Turkish league scheduling occasionally shifts due to administrative or logistical factors.
Traders should monitor official BSL announcements regarding team availability, injury updates, or fixture changes in the days preceding 2 May. Karsiyaka and Tofas' current league standings and recent form will influence late-market adjustments. The cancellation clause—resolving 50-50 if no make-up game occurs—represents tail risk, though BSL fixtures are rarely cancelled without rescheduling. Any announcement of postponement would keep the market open pending completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.tbl.org.tr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tofas vs. Karsiyaka" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.tbl.org.tr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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