Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming LNB game, scheduled for April 30 at 8:00PM ET: If the Penarol win, the market will resolve to "Penarol". If the Ferro Carril Oeste win, the market will resolve to "Ferro Carril Oeste". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Penarol vs. Ferro Carril Oeste | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The LNB (Liga Nacional de Básquet) matchup between Penarol and Ferro Carril Oeste is scheduled for 30 April at 8:00PM ET, with settlement occurring by 8 May 2026. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 100% implied probability for Penarol, indicating the market has priced this as a near-certain outcome. This extreme skew typically emerges when one team holds a decisive competitive advantage or when historical head-to-head records heavily favour one side.
Argentine basketball's domestic league features significant variance in team strength across seasons, though Penarol has historically maintained a stronger competitive position than Ferro Carril Oeste in recent campaigns. The 100% probability suggests traders have incorporated substantial form data, roster composition, and home-court considerations into current pricing. However, such extreme probabilities in basketball markets often reflect limited order book depth rather than genuine certainty; even heavily favoured teams lose approximately 5–10% of matchups against weaker opponents depending on league-wide competitive distribution.
Traders should monitor team injury reports and any fixture rescheduling announcements through official LNB channels in the days preceding the match. Postponements would extend the settlement window, whilst cancellation without a make-up game would trigger a 50-50 resolution. The current pricing leaves minimal margin for contrarian positioning, meaning any material news regarding player availability or venue issues could shift the order book substantially. Ferro Carril Oeste's recent form and any roster changes warrant checking against LNB official sources before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliganacional.com.ar/laliga/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Penarol vs. Ferro Carril Oeste" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliganacional.com.ar/laliga/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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