Trade: AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for May 14 at 7:05PM ET: If Springfield Thunderbirds win, the market will resolve to "Springfield Thunderbirds". If Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $209
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Market context
Springfield Thunderbirds face Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in an American Hockey League matchup on 14 May at 7:05 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split between the two outcomes, suggesting traders view this fixture as genuinely competitive with no clear favourite emerging from available information. Settlement includes regulation time, overtime, and shootout results, with the final score determining the winner.
The even probability distribution warrants scrutiny against recent AHL form and playoff positioning. Both franchises operate as development affiliates—Springfield for the St. Louis Blues and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton for the Pittsburgh Penguins—meaning roster composition fluctuates based on parent-club injury requirements and call-ups. Historical matchup data between these teams typically shows marginal differences in win rates, rarely exceeding 55-45 splits. The timing in mid-May suggests this occurs during the AHL playoffs, when fixture intensity and player motivation shift materially compared to regular-season play.
Traders should monitor roster announcements from both parent organisations through 14 May, as unexpected NHL injuries or playoff progressions could trigger late line-up changes affecting team strength. Weather conditions affecting travel to the venue merit consideration, though postponement rather than cancellation remains the standard protocol. Recent AHL playoff trends show increased scoring variance in elimination rounds, potentially favouring teams with stronger special-teams units. The current 50-50 pricing reflects genuine uncertainty; material information regarding key player availability would likely shift the order book substantially.
Wikipedia Context
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A Springfield Summer Christmas for Christmas"A Springfield Summer Christmas for Christmas" is the 10th episode of the thirty-second season of the American animated television series The Simpsons, and the 694th episode overall. It aired in the United States on Fox on December 13, 2020. The episode was directed by Timothy Bailey and written by Jessica Conrad.
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Royal Grammar School WorcesterThe Royal Grammar School Worcester is an 11-18 co-educational, private day school and sixth form in Worcester, Worcestershire, England. Founded before 1291, and possibly as early as 685, it is one of the oldest British independent day schools.
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WGGB-TVWGGB-TV is a television station in Springfield, Massachusetts, United States, affiliated with ABC, Fox, and MyNetworkTV. It is owned by Gray Media alongside low-power CBS affiliate WSHM-LD. The two stations share studios on Liberty Street in Springfield; WGGB-TV's transmitter is located on Mount Tom in Holyoke.
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WICSWICS is a television station licensed to Springfield, Illinois, United States, affiliated with ABC. The station is owned by Rincon Broadcasting Group, and maintains studios on East Cook Street in Springfield's Eastside; its transmitter is located west of Mechanicsburg, in unincorporated Sangamon County.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 49% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $204 if YES resolves true — a 104% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $209 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 49%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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