Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Aryna Sabalenka | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Coco Gauff | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Elena Rybakina | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Naomi Osaka | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Madison Keys | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Barbora Krejcikova | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Marketa Vondrousova | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Emma Navarro | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles tournament will take place from 23 August to 13 September at Flushing Meadows in New York. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 27% implied probability for the listed player to win the title, suggesting moderate confidence in their prospects relative to the broader field of competitors. This probability has been formed through trading activity across the market's liquidity pools, with the spread between buy and sell orders indicating the degree of uncertainty among traders.
Historical context shows that the U.S. Open women's draw typically features between 128 competitors, with seeded players accounting for roughly 32 positions. Since 2010, the tournament has been won by a relatively concentrated group of elite players, though upsets remain common in tennis. The 27% probability sits between the typical range for a top-four seeded player and a marginal contender, suggesting the market views this player as a serious but not dominant favourite. Comparable recent tournaments have seen similar probabilities assigned to players ranked in the world's top 10.
Traders should monitor several developments before the tournament begins. Injury announcements and player withdrawals will shift probabilities substantially, particularly if they affect top-seeded competitors. The Australian Open and French Open results in early 2026 will provide form indicators and ranking updates that influence seeding positions. Court surface performance data and head-to-head records against likely opponents in the draw will become relevant as the tournament approaches. Any changes to tournament scheduling or format, though unlikely, would trigger resolution conditions outlined in the market rules.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$979K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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