Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the Liga Nacional de Básquetbol. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Liga Nacional de Básquetbol per the rules of Liga Nacional de Básquetbol (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Atenas de Córdoba | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Independiente de Oliva | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Instituto de Córdoba | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Unión de Santa Fe | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Boca Juniors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| La Unión de Formosa | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Olímpico de La Banda | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Peñarol de Mar del Plata | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Liga Nacional de Básquetbol championship will be contested during the 2025–26 season, with the final scheduled before the May 16, 2026 settlement deadline. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity at present or a market assessment that the listed team faces substantial structural disadvantages relative to established contenders. This probability is formed by the spread between bids and asks on the order book; as traders add liquidity or adjust positions, the implied probability will shift to reflect new information or changing sentiment.
Historical championship outcomes in Liga Nacional de Básquetbol have been dominated by a small cluster of franchises with sustained investment in player rosters and coaching infrastructure. Teams such as Peñarol, Boca Juniors, and San Lorenzo have cycled through championship wins over the past decade, whilst smaller-market or newly promoted sides have rarely broken through. The current 0% reading suggests the listed team either lacks recent playoff experience, faces roster constraints, or competes in a weaker regional division within the league structure.
Traders should monitor preseason roster announcements and injury reports as the 2025–26 campaign approaches, alongside any mid-season trades or coaching changes that could alter competitive positioning. Fixture difficulty, head-to-head records against top-seeded teams, and playoff bracket composition will become material once the season progresses. The settlement window's closure on May 16, 2026 means any championship decided after that date would trigger early resolution rules; confirmation of the league's final schedule and any format changes should be tracked closely.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$51 in lifetime turnover and $11 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: