Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO). The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO. If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution. If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| NYSE | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| NASDAQ | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| Other | 7% YES | 93% NO |
SpaceX remains privately held with no confirmed timeline for an initial public offering, though founder Elon Musk has periodically indicated interest in taking the company public. The question of which exchange would host such a listing—most likely NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange—currently trades at 2% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting the substantial uncertainty around both the timing and likelihood of an IPO occurring in the relevant resolution window. The order book shows minimal trading activity, with the low probability suggesting market participants view a near-term listing as unlikely.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison. SpaceX's peer companies have followed conventional paths: Blue Origin remains private, whilst Virgin Galactic listed via SPAC merger on NASDAQ in 2019. Axiom Space and other commercial space ventures have similarly chosen NASDAQ for its technology-sector focus and liquidity. The NYSE has historically attracted larger, more established industrial firms. SpaceX's scale and valuation—estimated at $180 billion following its most recent funding round in 2023—would make it one of the largest IPOs on record, potentially influencing venue selection based on liquidity requirements and market infrastructure.
Traders monitoring this market should track Musk's public statements regarding IPO timing, regulatory developments affecting commercial spaceflight, and SpaceX's financial reporting practices. Recent SEC filings and statements from SpaceX executives regarding profitability targets and capital structure will signal readiness for public markets. Any announcement of underwriter engagement or formal SEC registration would substantially shift probabilities. The company's government contracts, particularly with the Department of Defence and NASA, may also influence listing decisions given regulatory scrutiny of defence-adjacent technology firms.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which exchange will SpaceX list on?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$95K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for space contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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