Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Ulsan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kim Doo-kyum | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Park Maeng-woo | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Candidate G | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
| Candidate M | — | |
South Korea will hold municipal elections on 3 June 2026, with Ulsan's mayoral race among the contests. The incumbent mayor's party affiliation and approval ratings will shape the competitive landscape, though Ulsan has historically alternated between conservative and progressive leadership. The city, home to major automotive and petrochemical industries, tends to reflect broader national political sentiment whilst maintaining distinct local concerns around industrial policy and environmental regulation.
Current order book pricing implies a 58% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the eventual winner. Comparable recent Korean municipal elections have produced tight races in major cities, with final margins often determined by late-campaign momentum and turnout patterns. Ulsan's electorate size and demographic composition—heavily weighted towards working-age industrial workers—create distinct voting dynamics compared to Seoul or Busan races.
Traders should monitor several developments through the settlement window. Official candidate registration typically occurs in April 2026, clarifying the field and enabling polling data to stabilise. National political events between now and June—including parliamentary dynamics and any shifts in presidential approval—will likely influence local races. News coverage from Korean media outlets covering municipal politics will signal shifting campaign narratives. The resolution mechanism depends on official National Election Commission results, with a December 2026 deadline for market closure if results remain unclear, though South Korean election administration typically produces definitive outcomes within days of polling.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $37K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for south korea contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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