Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Gyeonggi. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Choo Mi-ae 30-40% | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Choo Mi-ae 40%+ | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Choo Mi-ae 10-20% | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| Yang Hyang-ja | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Choo Mi-ae 20-30% | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Choo Mi-ae <10% | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Other | — | |
Gyeonggi Province will hold its gubernatorial election on 3 June 2026, with the winner determined by the margin separating the top two vote-getters. This market settles on the absolute percentage-point difference between first and second place in valid votes cast. The current order book implies a 7% probability that this margin will exceed a specified threshold, suggesting traders anticipate a competitive race rather than a decisive victory.
South Korean provincial elections typically produce margins ranging from single digits to low double figures, depending on regional political dynamics and candidate strength. The 2022 gubernatorial elections saw Gyeonggi won by the conservative People Power Party with a margin of approximately 3.5 percentage points, reflecting the province's status as a swing region. Historical precedent indicates that margins below 5 points occur regularly in competitive provinces, whilst dominant performances exceeding 10 points require either significant party advantages or weak opposition candidacies.
Key variables shaping the outcome include candidate announcements (expected through late 2025 and early 2026), national political developments affecting party fortunes, and regional economic conditions. The Democratic Party and People Power Party will both field candidates in this traditionally contested province. Traders should monitor approval ratings of the sitting president and ruling party, as these typically correlate with local election performance. Campaign intensity and candidate name recognition will become clearer as the election approaches, providing material for probability reassessment in the months preceding June 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 Gyeonggi Province Governor Election: Margin of Victory" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for south korea contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $379 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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