Trade: 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $92K
- Total Volume
- $24K
- 24h Volume
- $8K
- Open Interest
- $8K
Market outcomes
| Chong Won-oh 6-9% | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Chong Won-oh <3% | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Oh Se-hoon 3-6% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Other | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Chong Won-oh 9%+ | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Chong Won-oh 3-6% | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Oh Se-hoon <3% | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Oh Se-hoon 6%+ | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
Seoul will hold mayoral elections on 3 June 2026 to select its next chief executive. This market tracks the margin of victory between the top two candidates, measured as the absolute percentage-point difference in valid votes cast. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 14% probability that the winning margin will exceed a specified threshold, suggesting traders anticipate a relatively competitive race rather than a landslide outcome.
South Korean mayoral elections have historically produced mixed results in terms of victory margins. The 2018 Seoul mayoral election saw Park Won-soon (Democratic Party) win with approximately 54% of the vote against conservative candidate Oh Se-hoon's 40%, yielding a roughly 14-point margin. However, regional polarisation and shifting voter coalitions mean margins can vary substantially. The 2022 presidential election demonstrated significant volatility, with Yoon Suk-yeol's narrow victory margin of 0.73 percentage points illustrating how closely contested national races can become. These precedents suggest Seoul mayoral contests fall somewhere between decisive and narrow, though recent political fragmentation has introduced greater unpredictability.
Key catalysts ahead include the ruling and opposition parties' candidate announcements, typically occurring several months before the election. Economic conditions, particularly Seoul's property market and inflation trends, will shape voter sentiment. Any major political scandals or shifts in national-level politics could influence Seoul's local race, given the city's role as a bellwether. Polling data released from early 2026 onwards will provide concrete signals for traders reassessing the probability of a close versus decisive outcome.
Wikipedia Context
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2018 Seoul mayoral election
The 2018 Seoul mayoral election was held on 13 June 2018 as part of the 7th local elections. Incumbent Park Won-soon was elected for his third consecutive term; the South Korean Public Election Act places a limit of three consecutive terms on holders of the post, so that Park will not be able to run in the next mayoral election.
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2010 Seoul mayoral election
The 2010 Seoul mayoral election was held on 2 June 2010 as part of the 5th local elections.
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2014 Seoul mayoral election
The 2014 Seoul mayoral election was held on 4 June 2014 as part of the 6th local elections.
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2021 South Korean by-electionsThe 2021 South Korean by-elections were held in South Korea on 7 April 2021. The National Election Commission announced on 2 March 2021, that the by-elections would be held for 21 public offices or electoral districts, including 2 Metropolitan mayors, 2 Municipal mayors, 8 Metropolitan Council constituencies, and 9 Municipal Council constituencies. Candidate
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$24K in lifetime turnover and $92K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for south korea election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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