Trade: Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Solana’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Solana’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period. If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $36K
- 24h Volume
- $219
- Open Interest
- $16K
Market outcomes
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? | 51% YES | 49% NO |
Market context
Solana's price trajectory over the next twelve months will determine whether the network reaches $140 per token before experiencing a pullback to $60 or below. The current Polymarket order book is pricing this binary outcome at 51% probability for the $60 floor being breached first, reflecting genuine uncertainty about near-term directional momentum. This implies traders view a drop to $60 as marginally more likely than a rally to $140 within the settlement window, though the tight odds suggest the market sees both scenarios as plausible.
Historical precedent provides context: Solana traded below $20 during the 2022 bear market and recovered to $140 in November 2021 during the previous cycle peak. The $60–$140 range brackets roughly one standard deviation of volatility around current levels, making both outcomes achievable within a twelve-month horizon depending on broader crypto market conditions and Solana-specific developments. Previous cycles have seen similar price swings compressed into shorter timeframes, though macro conditions and regulatory environment differ substantially.
Key catalysts include Firedancer client deployment milestones, which could improve network throughput and attract institutional adoption, and broader Bitcoin price movements, which typically drive altcoin sentiment. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and any significant cryptocurrency regulatory announcements from Washington will likely dominate directional bias. Solana's developer ecosystem activity and competing Layer 1 performance metrics also influence relative valuation. Traders should monitor Solana Foundation announcements and on-chain transaction volumes as leading indicators of network health and demand.
Wikipedia Context
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Solana SierraSolana Sierra is an Argentine tennis player. She has a career-high WTA singles ranking of No. 63, achieved on 19 January 2026. She is the current No. 1 Argentine singles player.
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Mike SolanaMichael Solana is an American writer and conservative commentator. He is the Chief Marketing Officer of the venture capital firm Founders Fund and the founder of media company Pirate Wires.
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Teresa Solana
Teresa Solana i Mir is a contemporary Spanish writer of crime fiction in Catalan. She studied philosophy and the Classics at Universitat de Barcelona. Her work has been translated to English, French, German, Esperanto, Italian, Spanish, Hindi and Romanian
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SZASolána Imani Rowe, known professionally as SZA, is an American singer-songwriter. Known for her diaristic songwriting and genre explorations, she is regarded as a prominent figure in influencing contemporary R&B music and popularizing alternative R&B.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 51% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $196 if YES resolves true — a 96% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$36K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for solana contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $219 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 51%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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