Trade: World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Salah” if Mohamed Salah scores more goals than Sadio Mane through all rounds of the main tournament at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Mane”. In the event of a tie this market will resolve to 50-50. If a player withdraws, or does not play for any reason, this market will resolve in favor of the opposing player. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined which player scored more goals within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be the official results published by FIFA.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $790
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Market context
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place across North America in June and July, with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane competing for Egypt and Senegal respectively. This market settles on which player scores more goals across the tournament's main rounds. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 47% probability that Salah finishes ahead, suggesting traders view the outcome as roughly even with a slight lean toward Mane.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison, as neither player has featured prominently in a World Cup knockout stage simultaneously. Salah's international record stands at 50 goals in 102 appearances for Egypt, whilst Mane has 34 goals in 90 caps for Senegal. However, World Cup performance diverges sharply from qualification and friendly metrics; both players' club form and fitness at tournament time matter more than career averages. Egypt's qualification path and Senegal's group placement will determine fixture difficulty and potential tournament depth, influencing goal-scoring opportunity.
Key catalysts include official 2026 World Cup group draw confirmation, squad announcements in early 2026, and pre-tournament injury reports. Salah's age (33 at tournament time) and Mane's (34) introduce durability considerations absent from younger cohorts. Club form in the 2025–26 season will signal match sharpness. Recent reporting from ESPN and BBC Sport has noted both players' continued elite status, though neither is guaranteed starting minutes if their clubs rotate heavily during the tournament window. Withdrawal risk, whilst low, remains material given the settlement clause's explicit provision.
Wikipedia Context
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World cupA world cup is a global sporting competition in which the participant entities – usually international teams or individuals representing their countries – compete for the title of world champion. The event most associated with the name is the FIFA World Cup for association football, which dates back to 1930. Since then there have been a number of sporting ev
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2016 World Cup of Hockey
The 2016 World Cup of Hockey was an international ice hockey tournament. It was the third installment of the National Hockey League (NHL)-sanctioned competition, 12 years after the second World Cup of Hockey in 2004. It was held from September 17 to September 29 at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario. Canada won the championship, defeating Team Europe in t
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1996 World Cup of Hockey
The first World Cup of Hockey (WCH), or the 1996 World Cup of Hockey, was the inaugural edition of the event, replacing the Canada Cup as one of the world championships of ice hockey.
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2028 World Cup of Hockey
The 2028 World Cup of Hockey will be the fourth installment of the World Cup of Hockey by the National Hockey League. It will be played in February 2028 with 17 games in three host cities. The competition will include eight teams from individual countries in North America and Europe.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 47% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $213 if YES resolves true — a 113% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $790 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 47%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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