Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Süper Lig game, scheduled for May 17 at 1:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Antalyaspor (-1.5) | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Kocaelispor (-1.5) | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Antalyaspor (-2.5) | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Kocaelispor (-2.5) | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Antalyaspor will host Kocaelispor on 17 May 2026 in a Süper Lig fixture scheduled for 13:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 36% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a baseline expectation around that threshold. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where buyers and sellers have converged on that price level as of today.
Antalyaspor finished the 2024–25 season mid-table in Turkey's top division, whilst Kocaelispor has competed in the second tier and lower divisions in recent seasons. Historical matchups between clubs of differing league standings show considerable variance in outcome pricing, particularly when one side carries stronger domestic pedigree. The 36% probability suggests traders view the outcome as moderately unlikely relative to alternative scenarios, though not negligible given the Turkish league's competitive unpredictability.
Key variables affecting this market include team injury reports and squad availability in the weeks leading to the fixture, managerial changes or tactical shifts announced closer to match day, and any fixture congestion affecting either side's preparation. Traders should monitor official Süper Lig communications and club statements for squad news. Weather conditions at Antalya in May typically favour open play, though this rarely moves probability significantly. The settlement window closes at 17:00 ET on match day, allowing minimal time for late-breaking information after kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Antalyaspor vs. Kocaelispor - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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