Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 27 at 10:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jordan (-1.5) | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Argentina (-1.5) | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Jordan (-2.5) | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Argentina (-2.5) | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 84% YES | 16% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
Jordan and Argentina are scheduled to meet in a FIFA World Cup fixture on 27 June at 10:00 PM ET, with settlement determined by whether additional markets for this match will be created on Polymarket. The current order book is pricing this outcome at 6% implied probability, reflecting trader conviction that supplementary betting markets beyond the core match result are unlikely to materialise for this particular fixture.
Historical precedent suggests that Polymarket expands its World Cup coverage selectively, prioritising matches involving higher-profile nations or those with substantial liquidity demand. Argentina, as a top-ranked side and defending World Cup champion, typically attracts deeper market interest than Jordan, a lower-ranked opponent. Previous World Cup cycles show that additional markets—such as player performance props, corner totals, or card counts—are created predominantly for matches featuring established betting audiences. The 6% probability reflects this structural pattern: markets for Jordan fixtures have historically received minimal supplementary coverage relative to headline matchups.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's market creation announcements in the week preceding the fixture, as the platform typically signals its coverage intentions closer to match day. Recent World Cup coverage decisions have been influenced by both anticipated liquidity and user demand signals. The settlement window closes 28 June at 02:00 UTC, allowing approximately 26 hours post-match for any additional markets to be launched. Any unexpected surge in pre-match trading volume or platform announcements regarding expanded Jordan coverage would represent a material catalyst shifting current probabilities.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Jordan vs. Argentina - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15 in lifetime turnover and $48K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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