Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Saturday, June 13, 2026 between Brazil and Morocco.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Morocco | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Brazil | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| Draw (Brazil vs. Morocco) | 24% YES | 76% NO |
Brazil and Morocco will face each other in a group-stage fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June. The match forms part of the tournament's opening round, where both nations will be competing for points in their respective groups. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Brazil victory at 17% implied probability, reflecting the substantial gap in recent competitive form and historical record between the two sides.
Brazil holds a significant advantage in head-to-head encounters and tournament pedigree. The five-time World Cup champions have qualified for every World Cup since 1958 and typically field squads ranked in the top five globally. Morocco, by contrast, reached the semi-finals in 2022—their best World Cup result—but has not won a knockout match at the tournament since 1986. The 17% probability assigned to Brazil suggests the market is pricing in Morocco's improved standing in African football and their demonstrated ability to compete at the highest level, whilst still heavily favouring the traditional powerhouse.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury reports as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding Brazil's attacking depth and Morocco's defensive stability. Qualification outcomes for both nations in their respective confederations will confirm final squad compositions by late 2025. Recent form in World Cup qualifiers and friendly matches in early 2026 will provide the most direct signal of team condition. Any late withdrawals or significant injuries to key players could shift the probability materially, though such changes typically move markets only days before kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Brazil vs. Morocco" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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