Trade: FIFA World Cup Group F Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $29K
- Total Volume
- $128K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $40K
Market outcomes
| Tunisia | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Japan | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Netherlands | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Sweden | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Market context
The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage runs 11–27 June, with Group F comprising four nations yet to be finalised through qualifying rounds concluding in November 2025. The market settles on whichever team finishes first in their group according to FIFA's official tiebreak procedures, with the settlement window extending to 27 June 2026. The current 5% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about which nation will claim the group, though this figure will shift materially once the four teams are confirmed and their relative strengths become clearer for traders assessing the market.
Historical World Cup group winners have typically been seeded nations or established football powers, though upsets occur regularly enough that group outcomes remain genuinely competitive. The 2022 World Cup saw several surprises—Japan and Spain topped their respective groups despite pre-tournament expectations—demonstrating that group composition and draw luck matter considerably. Current pricing at 5% suggests the market is pricing in either a relatively weak favourite or genuine parity among potential Group F entrants, a valuation that will require recalibration once qualifying concludes and team identities are locked in.
Key catalysts for traders include the completion of World Cup qualifying matches through November 2025, the official group draw in December 2025, and any squad announcements or injury updates in the months preceding June 2026. Recent UEFA qualifying matches and CONMEBOL fixtures will provide early signals about which nations are likely to populate Group F, allowing traders to reassess probabilities as the tournament approaches.
Wikipedia Context
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FIFA WorldFIFA World was a free-to-play massively multiplayer online football game developed by EA Canada. It was announced on 9 August 2013 and later an open beta was released on 12 November 2013 in Brazil and Russia. The open beta was made available globally on 20 May 2014, with support in English, German, French, Russian, Spanish, Mexican Spanish, Brazilian Portugu
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FIFA World CupThe FIFA World Cup, often called the World Cup, is an international association football competition among the senior men's national teams of the members of the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the sport's global governing body. The tournament has been held every four years since the inaugural tournament in 1930, with the exception o
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FIFA World Cup awards
At the end of each FIFA World Cup final tournament, several awards are presented to the players and teams who have distinguished themselves in various aspects of the game.
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FIFA World Cup records and statistics
As of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, 80 national teams have competed at the finals of the men’s FIFA World Cup. Brazil is the only team to have appeared in all 22 tournaments to date, with Germany having participated in 20, Italy and Argentina in 18 and Mexico in 17. Eight nations have won the tournament. The inaugural winners in 1930 were Uruguay; the current ch
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "FIFA World Cup Group F Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$128K in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "FIFA World Cup Group F Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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