Trade: Tajikistan vs. India - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Tajikistan and India, scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Tajikistan vs. India match originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $34K
- Total Volume
- $32
- 24h Volume
- $32
- Open Interest
- $32
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
Tajikistan and India will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 5 June 2026, with the market pricing an 8% probability for an exact-score outcome. The settlement window closes at 15:00 UTC on that date, capturing the final result after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. Polymarket's order book is currently reflecting this low probability, suggesting traders view a specific scoreline as unlikely relative to the broader distribution of possible outcomes.
Exact-score markets in international friendlies typically settle to "Any Other Score" in the majority of cases, as the number of possible final results far exceeds any single outcome. Historical data from comparable fixtures shows that even heavily favoured scorelines rarely exceed 15–20% probability when listed individually. India ranks approximately 100th in FIFA standings whilst Tajikistan sits lower, making this a relatively unbalanced matchup; however, friendlies introduce unpredictability that can suppress the probability of any single scoreline further. The 8% current price reflects this structural feature of exact-score markets rather than exceptional confidence in a particular result.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and team news from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, as injury absences or tactical adjustments could shift expected goal-scoring patterns. The fixture's classification as a friendly—rather than a competitive qualifier—means either side may field experimental lineups, introducing additional variance. Confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled remains a dependency; any postponement would extend the settlement window, potentially altering market dynamics as new information emerges closer to the rescheduled date.
Wikipedia Context
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India–Tajikistan relationsThe bilateral relations between India and Tajikistan have developed considerably owing to both nations' co-operation on security and strategic issues. India had set up its first overseas military base Farkhor in Tajikistan. India also assisted in building Ayni Hospital.
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Tajikistan Independence Day Military Parade
The Tajikistan Independence Day Military Parade is the main event of the Independence Day of Tajikistan. This parade is held every 5 years in Dushanbe on September 9. The participants in the parade are from agencies of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Tajikistan. The parade route is made up of Rudaki Avenue, Dousti Square and Hofizi Sherozi Avenue.
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History of TajikistanThe Tajik people came under Russian rule in the 1860s. The Basmachi revolt broke out in the wake of the Russian Revolution of 1917 and was quelled in the early 1920s during the Russian Civil War. In 1924, Tajikistan became an Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of the Soviet Union, the Tajik ASSR, within Uzbekistan. In 1929, Tajikistan was made one of the c
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Tajikistani Armed ForcesThe Tajik National Army, officially known as the Armed Forces of the Republic of Tajikistan, is the national military of the Republic of Tajikistan. It consists of Ground Forces, Mobile Forces, and the Air Force, with closely affiliated forces including the national guard, border and internal troops.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Tajikistan vs. India - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$32 in lifetime turnover and $34K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $32 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Tajikistan vs. India - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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