Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will. If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? | 90% YES | 10% NO |
The Supreme Court is currently considering whether the President may remove Federal Trade Commission commissioners without cause, a power that has been restricted since the 1935 Humphrey's Executor decision. Trump v. Slaughter directly challenges this 89-year-old precedent, which established that independent agencies require for-cause removal protections to maintain their institutional independence. A ruling overturning Humphrey's Executor would grant the President substantially broader authority to dismiss agency heads, fundamentally altering the balance between executive power and regulatory independence. The case represents one of the most significant administrative law questions before the Court in decades.
The current 90% implied probability on Polymarket reflects confidence in a ruling that substantially limits or overturns Humphrey's Executor, based on the Court's recent ideological composition and its demonstrated willingness to revisit longstanding administrative precedent. The 6–3 conservative majority has shown receptiveness to executive power arguments, particularly following decisions like Seila Law v. CFPB (2020), which struck down removal restrictions for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director. Historical comparisons to that case and the broader majoritarian shift on the bench inform the high probability.
Key catalysts include the Court's oral argument schedule and the decision timeline, typically extending through June 2025. Market participants should monitor any signals from oral arguments regarding Justice Kennedy's or other swing justices' positioning. The settlement window extends to 31 December 2026, providing substantial time for the ruling to materialise, though the Court typically resolves major cases within its current term or the following one.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for scotus contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 90%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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