Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| 1 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| 2 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 3 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 4 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 5 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| >5 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The market concerns whether six or more earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or above will occur globally during a seven-day window in June 2026. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program will serve as the authoritative resolution source, with a settlement window extending to 30 June to account for reporting delays on significant seismic events. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 49% probability of this threshold being met, reflecting genuine uncertainty about seismic activity during this specific week.
Historical seismic data shows that magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occur irregularly worldwide. The USGS records approximately 15 such events annually on average, translating to roughly 0.3 per week globally. However, seismic activity clusters unpredictably; some weeks see multiple major earthquakes whilst others see none. The 49% probability suggests traders are pricing in the possibility of either a quiet week or an active seismic period, with neither scenario commanding consensus confidence.
Traders monitoring this market should track real-time USGS earthquake alerts and any significant tectonic activity in known seismic zones, particularly around the Pacific Ring of Fire, where roughly 90% of major earthquakes occur. The market's resolution depends entirely on USGS reporting, which typically publishes magnitude determinations within hours of significant events, though occasional revisions can occur. No scheduled geological events or forecasts directly predict seismic activity for this specific week, making the outcome dependent on natural variation in tectonic stress release.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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