Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤5 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| 6 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 7 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| 9 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| >9 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 8 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
The market tracks whether at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater will occur globally during a seven-day window in early June 2026. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the authoritative resolution source, capturing all seismic events meeting the magnitude threshold regardless of location or depth. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 43% probability that this threshold will be crossed at least once during the settlement period.
Historical seismic data provides context for evaluating this probability. The USGS records approximately 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or above globally each month on average, though distribution is highly uneven. Over any given seven-day period, the baseline expectation sits around 2.5 events, suggesting that a single week without a 5.5+ magnitude quake occurs roughly 8–12% of the time. The 43% implied probability reflects either a view that the coming week presents below-average seismic activity or uncertainty about whether marginal events near the 5.5 threshold will be confirmed at that magnitude.
Traders should monitor real-time USGS earthquake notifications and preliminary magnitude assessments, which occasionally shift as seismologists refine data from global monitoring networks. Significant foreshock activity in known seismic zones—particularly around the Pacific Ring of Fire, subduction zones, or mid-ocean ridges—could shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes on 8 June at 03:59 UTC, allowing a brief window after the observation period ends for magnitude confirmations to be finalised before resolution.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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