Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Friday, May 29, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Friday, May 29, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the YES side at 52%, making this a coinflip market with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $975 of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 29? | 52% YES | 49% NO |
The Russell 2000 will close on Friday, 29 May 2026, and traders are pricing a 52% probability that it finishes higher than the prior trading day's close. This is a single-day directional bet on the small-cap index, which typically exhibits higher volatility than large-cap benchmarks. The current order book on Polymarket reflects modest conviction either direction, with the probability hovering near equilibrium—suggesting market participants see roughly balanced risk of a positive or negative close.
Single-day moves in the Russell 2000 historically cluster around ±1% with meaningful frequency, though the distribution is fat-tailed. Over the past decade, small-cap indices have shown slightly higher sensitivity to rotation trades and sentiment shifts than the S&P 500, particularly around month-end rebalancing windows. A 52% lean toward "up" is consistent with mild bullish positioning without suggesting strong directional consensus. Comparable single-day markets on the Russell 2000 have typically resolved near 50–55% when priced without clear macroeconomic catalysts immediately preceding settlement.
Traders should monitor late-May economic data releases—particularly any final jobs reports or inflation readings scheduled for the week of 26–29 May—as these often drive broad equity repricing. Fed communications and treasury yield movements will also influence small-cap appetite. End-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing activity, which often favours value and smaller-cap stocks, could create upside bias on the final trading day of May. Earnings season tail-end activity and any corporate guidance revisions will shape intraday momentum.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 29 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 29?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. At the current YES price of 52%, a $50 stake on YES buys roughly 96 shares; if YES resolves true those shares pay out at $1.00 each (a $96 gross payout, or +$46 profit). If NO resolves, the shares are worth $0. Slippage tolerance and resting-order depth determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 29?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $975 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rut contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 52%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 29 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 29?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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