Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| PSD | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| PNL | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| USR | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| UDMR | 87% YES | 14% NO |
| AUR | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| SOS | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Romania's government fell to a no-confidence vote on 5 May 2026, triggering a coalition formation process that will determine which parties enter the next governing arrangement. The 72% implied probability reflects current market pricing on Polymarket's order book, where traders are pricing in a baseline expectation of coalition participation. This probability varies by individual party, with larger parliamentary blocs commanding higher odds of inclusion than smaller or more ideologically isolated parties.
Romanian coalition governments have historically required broad multi-party arrangements given the fragmented nature of Parliament. The 2021–2024 government under Nicolae Ciucă involved the National Liberal Party, Social Democratic Party, and the Hungarian minority party UDMR, demonstrating that ideologically disparate partners can form stable coalitions when necessary. The current 72% figure suggests traders view coalition formation as likely to follow established patterns, with traditional centre-right and centre-left parties more probable participants than fringe or anti-establishment formations.
Key catalysts include the President's formal nomination of a prime ministerial candidate, typically occurring within days of government collapse, and subsequent coalition negotiations that determine which parties receive ministerial portfolios. Parliamentary confidence votes on the proposed government will provide hard data on coalition composition. Recent reporting from Reuters and local outlets indicates negotiations are underway amongst the larger parliamentary groups, though no formal coalition agreement has yet been announced. The resolution hinges entirely on official government formation and the taking of the oath of office by cabinet members.
Social viewing is the recent practice of multiple users viewing online videos together and exchanging commentary.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for romania contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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