Ripple

Trade: XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

100% YES 0% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$0
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
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Market outcomes

XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET 100% YES0% NO

Market context

This market captures a five-minute window for XRP/USD pricing on Chainlink's data feed, settling just after 8:45 PM Eastern Time on 3 May 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects the order book's current positioning, where traders are pricing near-certainty that the closing price will match or exceed the opening price within this narrow timeframe. Such compressed windows typically see minimal volatility unless significant news breaks during the exact interval, making the probability distribution heavily skewed towards marginal upward or flat movement.

Five-minute price windows for major cryptocurrencies historically exhibit mean reversion characteristics, with the majority resolving to "Up" simply because intraday noise and bid-ask spreads favour small positive movements. Comparable Polymarket micro-windows on established assets like BTC or ETH have shown similar clustering at elevated probabilities when no scheduled catalysts fall within the settlement period. However, Chainlink feed latency or flash volatility during market opens can occasionally create discrepancies between spot prices and the oracle's reported values, introducing tail risk that the current pricing may not fully account for.

Traders should monitor whether any Ripple announcements, regulatory developments, or broader cryptocurrency market moves occur near the 8:40 PM window. XRP has experienced volatility around SEC regulatory news and institutional adoption updates throughout 2026. The Chainlink feed's specific data source matters here—any divergence between major exchanges and the oracle's aggregated price could shift settlement outcomes, particularly if liquidity dries up during the five-minute interval.

Wikipedia Context

  • XRP Ledger

    The XRP Ledger (XRPL), also called the Ripple Protocol, is a cryptocurrency platform launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs. The XRPL employs the native cryptocurrency known as XRP, and supports tokens, cryptocurrency or other units of value such as frequent flyer miles or mobile minutes.

  • XP-PEN
    XP-PEN

    XP-PEN is a graphics tablet development and distribution company, originally established in Japan in 2005 by Taiwanese manufacturer P-Active and now headquartered in Shenzhen, China, with a research and development office in California, United States. In 2019, XPPen became a holding subsidiary of Hanvon Ugee Group, a graphics tablet manufacturer who, like XP

  • Xi Puppis
    Xi Puppis

    Xi Puppis is a multiple star system in the southern constellation of Puppis. With an apparent visual magnitude of 3.35, it is one of the brighter members of this constellation. Based on parallax measurements made during the Hipparcos mission, it is located approximately 1,200 light-years from the Sun, with a 7.5% margin of error.

  • XAP processor

    XAP is a 16-bit and 32-bit RISC processor architecture developed by Cambridge Consultants. Its design enables use in mixed-signal integrated circuits for sensor or wireless applications including Bluetooth, Zigbee, GPS, RFID or Near Field Communication chips. These integrated circuits are typically used in low-cost, high-volume products that are battery-powe

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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