Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1.50 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 1.60 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 1.70 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 1.80 | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 0.80 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| 0.90 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| 1.00 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| 1.10 | 91% YES | 9% NO |
This market resolves based on XRP's closing price on the Binance XRP/USDT pair at precisely 12:00 noon Eastern Time on 8 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The current order book on Polymarket prices a 3% probability of XRP closing above the specified threshold, reflecting substantial scepticism about reaching that level within the settlement window.
XRP has historically demonstrated volatility clustering around regulatory announcements and broader cryptocurrency market movements. The 3% implied probability suggests the threshold sits considerably above recent trading ranges or represents an extreme price movement scenario. Comparable cryptocurrency prediction markets typically show similarly low probabilities for price targets requiring 50%+ moves within a defined timeframe, particularly when settlement depends on a single minute's closing price rather than daily or weekly averages.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments in Ripple's regulatory environment, particularly any SEC litigation updates or international regulatory clarity that could affect XRP sentiment. Broader cryptocurrency market conditions in early June 2026 will substantially influence intraday volatility on Binance. The specificity of the noon ET timestamp introduces additional execution risk—XRP/USDT liquidity patterns and any scheduled announcements timed around that window could create outsized price movement. Recent cryptocurrency volatility has occasionally produced unexpected intraday spikes, though the current order book pricing suggests the market assigns minimal probability to such an occurrence by that date.
The XRP Ledger (XRPL), also called the Ripple Protocol, is a cryptocurrency platform launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs. The XRPL employs the native cryptocurrency known as XRP, and supports tokens, cryptocurrency or other units of value such as frequent flyer miles or mobile minutes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP above 2026 on June 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20 in lifetime turnover and $55K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ripple contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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