Resolution criteria on PolyGram: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 28?
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 48%, making this a coinflip market with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $6K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $775 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| $755 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| $750 | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| $740 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| $765 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| $760 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| $745 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| $735 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
The S&P 500 will either close above or below a specified price level on 28 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 13% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders view this threshold as substantially above where the index is likely to settle at market close on that date. This probability is being formed through continuous matching of bids and asks across the platform's liquidity pool, with each trade adjusting the marginal price until equilibrium is reached.
Historical volatility and mean reversion patterns offer context for interpreting this low probability. The S&P 500 has historically closed more than 5–8% above its 12-month average on fewer than 15% of trading days, depending on the specific threshold in question. If the strike price sits near the 90th percentile of expected May 2026 valuations, a 13% probability aligns with historical frequency distributions. Comparable expiry markets on equity indices typically show similar skew when strikes are set substantially above consensus price targets.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases between now and late May, as monetary policy shifts remain the primary driver of equity valuations. First-quarter earnings revisions and GDP forecasts will also influence positioning. Any unexpected geopolitical event or credit market stress could shift the entire probability curve, though the current order book suggests the market is pricing in a baseline scenario of moderate growth and stable rates through May 2026.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 28 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 2026 on May 28?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($6K of resting liquidity), a $100 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 2026 on May 28?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rewards automation 1000 4pt5 100 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 2026 on May 28?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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