Trade: What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

Market context

Netflix publishes its weekly Top 10 rankings for US television shows every Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET, with the next update scheduled for 2 June 2026. This market settles on whichever show ranks second in that week's list, based on total views across the United States. The ranking reflects viewership data from the preceding Monday through Sunday period. If Netflix fails to publish the update by 11:59 PM ET on 5 June, the market resolves to "Other".

The current orderbook on Polymarket shows 100% implied probability for YES, indicating the crowd expects Netflix will publish its rankings on schedule. Historical precedent supports this: Netflix has maintained consistent weekly publication of its Top 10 lists since August 2021, with updates arriving reliably on Tuesday afternoons. The #2 position typically rotates between established series and newly released content, with recent weeks seeing shows like *Bridgerton*, *The Gentlemen*, and *Griselda* occupy that slot. The certainty reflected in today's pricing reflects Netflix's operational consistency rather than predictability of which specific show will rank second.

Traders should monitor Netflix's release calendar for new series premiering the week of 26 May to 1 June, as launches frequently disrupt rankings. Existing shows with sustained viewership—particularly those in their opening weeks—typically compete for the #2 position. The settlement depends entirely on Netflix's publication occurring within the specified window; any service disruption or scheduling change would trigger the "Other" resolution. No recent announcements suggest deviations from Netflix's standard Tuesday publication schedule.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$43K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for rewards 50 4pt5 20 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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