Trade: Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Florentino Perez ceases to be the President of Real Madrid for any length of time by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Florentino Perez’s resignation or firing before the market’s end date will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced resignation or firing goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from Real Madrid and/or Florentino Perez; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? | 14% YES | 87% NO |
Market context
Florentino Perez has served as Real Madrid president since 2000, with a brief interruption from 2006 to 2009. The current market prices a 14% probability that he will step down or be removed before the end of 2026, reflecting the crowd's assessment on Polymarket's order book. At 86 years old, Perez remains actively engaged in club operations, though succession planning has periodically surfaced in Spanish media. His tenure has been marked by significant institutional stability; presidential transitions at major European clubs typically occur either through planned retirements or acute crises rather than gradual pressure.
Historical precedent suggests that Real Madrid presidential changes follow distinct patterns. Ramón López de Carvajaland Jesús Gil y Gil both served extended tenures before planned transitions, whilst forced departures have been rare in the club's modern era. The 14% implied probability reflects a baseline expectation of continuity, weighted against health-related uncertainties and the possibility of unforeseen governance disputes.
Traders should monitor Perez's public health status, any announcements regarding formal succession planning, and Real Madrid's quarterly governance disclosures. The club's financial performance and European competition results could influence board dynamics, though these have historically had limited bearing on presidential tenure. Spanish media outlets including Marca and AS regularly report on club leadership; formal announcements from Real Madrid's official channels would constitute the settlement trigger, with any resignation announcement before 31 December 2026 resolving the market to Yes regardless of implementation date.
Wikipedia Context
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Florentino PérezFlorentino Pérez Rodríguez is a Spanish businessman and the president of football club Real Madrid, as well as chairman and CEO of Grupo ACS, a civil engineering company. He is widely regarded as one of the greatest club presidents of all time.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 14% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $714 if YES resolves true — a 614% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for real madrid contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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