Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Al Green | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Christian Menefee | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Amanda Edwards | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
Texas's 18th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 3 March 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 10% probability that a Democratic nominee will be successfully announced by the November 2026 deadline, with settlement occurring on 26 May 2026. This low probability reflects either market expectations of a contested or delayed nomination process, or limited trader activity in this specific race at present.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic primaries in Texas's competitive districts typically produce clear nominees without significant delays. TX-18, which encompasses parts of the Houston metropolitan area, has been a swing district in recent cycles. The 2022 cycle saw straightforward primary resolutions in comparable Texas seats, with nominees announced well before general election day. The current 10% YES probability appears conservative relative to baseline rates for successful Democratic primary nominations nationally, which exceed 95% in most cycles.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and filing deadlines in the coming months, as these will clarify the field and intensity of competition. The Texas Democratic Party's formal primary schedule and any potential challenges to ballot access or nomination procedures could shift expectations materially. Additionally, broader Democratic Party dynamics—including potential recruitment efforts or strategic decisions about resource allocation to TX-18—may influence whether a competitive primary materialises or whether consensus coalesces around a single candidate earlier in the cycle.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$28K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for primaries contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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