Trade: Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $24K
- Total Volume
- $96K
- 24h Volume
- $400
- Open Interest
- $9K
Market outcomes
| $50M | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| $100M | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| $300M | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| $500M | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| $200M | 56% YES | 44% NO |
Market context
Surf, an AI-focused platform, is preparing to launch a governance token with public trading capability. The market will settle based on whether the token's fully diluted valuation—calculated by multiplying total token supply by the price one day after launch—exceeds a specified threshold. Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following when the token becomes actively tradable on public markets. The 71% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects current market expectations, formed through active trading on the platform's liquidity pools.
Historical token launches show considerable variance in initial FDV depending on pre-launch hype, allocation structure, and market conditions. Projects with substantial community engagement and clear tokenomics typically command higher valuations at launch, whilst those with concentrated distributions or unclear utility often underperform initial expectations. Recent comparable launches in the AI infrastructure space have seen FDVs ranging from £50 million to several hundred million pounds within the first trading day, depending on initial demand and token supply mechanics.
Traders should monitor Surf's official announcements regarding exact launch timing, total token supply, and initial allocation details—factors that directly influence FDV calculations. Market conditions on the launch date itself will prove critical; broader crypto market sentiment, competing token launches, and macroeconomic factors typically drive significant volatility in early trading. The settlement window extending to January 2028 provides ample time for resolution, though the actual outcome will be determined within hours of launch completion.
Wikipedia Context
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Surf filmSurf movies fall into three distinct genres:The surfing documentary — targeting the surfing enthusiast. The 1960s beach party films — targeting the broader community. Fictional feature films with a focus on the reality of surfing.
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Surf (Donnie Trumpet & The Social Experiment album)Surf is the debut studio album by American band The Social Experiment; it was released exclusively on iTunes as a free download on May 28, 2015. The album highlights trumpeter Nico Segal, formerly known as "Donnie Trumpet," and was created by Segal along with his band of collaborators called The Social Experiment — a self-described group of bohemian musician
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Surf Diva
Surf Diva is a surf school and shop based in La Jolla, a community in San Diego, California. It offers surfing lessons at the nearby La Jolla Shores beach. Originally an all-women's surf school, co-ed classes are now offered. Surf Diva also offers a seasonal surf retreat in Costa Rica.
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Surf fishingSurf fishing is land-based game fishing while standing on the shoreline or wading into the surf zone. A general term, surf fishing may or may not include casting a lure or bait, and refers to all types of shore fishing – from sandy and rocky beaches, rock jetties, or even fishing piers. The terms surfcasting or beachcasting refer more specifically to surf fi
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$96K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $400 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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