Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if MoistCr1TiKaL (penguinz0) gets a haircut in 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “haircut” refers to a clearly visible and noticeable shortening to his hair, small adjustments of an inch or two will not qualify unless they are a clear result of a haircut. Taking a little snip or minor trim on stream (or in a video) also does not count. It must be a real, substantial haircut that noticeably changes his appearance from the long hair style he's maintained. The resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will MoistCr1TiKaL get a haircut in 2026? | 47% YES | 53% NO |
MoistCr1TiKaL, the content creator and streamer known professionally as penguinz0, has maintained notably long hair throughout his public career, which has become a recognisable aspect of his personal brand. The market seeks to determine whether he will undergo a substantial, visible haircut during 2026—defined as a noticeable shortening rather than minor trims, with resolution dependent on photographic evidence of a clear change in appearance by year-end.
The 47% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty around a creator whose styling choices have remained consistent over many years. Content creators with established visual identities typically alter their appearance infrequently, though not impossibly so. Comparable cases—such as other long-haired streamers or YouTubers who have occasionally shifted their look—suggest that substantial changes occur sporadically and often coincide with significant life events, creative pivots, or personal decisions rather than following predictable patterns. The current order book pricing indicates traders view a haircut as roughly a coin-flip proposition, balancing the baseline infrequency of such changes against the full year window and the possibility of unexpected shifts in personal preference.
Traders monitoring this market should track any announcements regarding major life changes, potential collaborations with styling professionals, or explicit statements from MoistCr1TiKaL regarding his appearance plans. Seasonal content cycles and streaming schedule variations throughout 2026 may provide opportunities for visibility into any grooming decisions. The resolution hinges entirely on photographic documentation, meaning even a significant haircut could theoretically remain unresolved if not publicly documented or verified through available sources.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will MoistCr1TiKaL get a haircut in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37 in lifetime turnover and $15 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 47%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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