Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Season 5 of The Witcher is expected to air on Netflix in late 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Witcher: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Geralt of Rivia | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Yennefer of Vengerberg | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Princess Cirilla | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Jaskier | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Vilgefortz | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Emhyr | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Milva | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Cahir | 30% YES | 71% NO |
Netflix's The Witcher Season 5 will conclude the live-action adaptation of Andrzej Sapkowski's fantasy novels. The season is scheduled for late 2026 release, with the settlement window closing 30 June 2027. Current order book pricing implies a 30% probability that a specified character will die during the season—either shown on screen or confirmed through dialogue, funeral scenes, or equivalent narrative confirmation. Deaths reversed through resurrection or revival after the initial death still count as qualifying deaths under market rules.
The 30% implied probability reflects uncertainty inherent in adapting source material with established character fates. The books contain numerous significant deaths, yet showrunner decisions frequently diverge from literary canon—Season 4 notably altered several character trajectories. Previous seasons have killed major characters including Yennefer (temporarily), Emhyr, and various supporting figures, establishing that the show does not shy from mortality. However, the final season typically reserves deaths for narrative climax rather than early episodes, and lead characters often survive to series conclusion.
Traders should monitor casting announcements and production updates through 2026, particularly any statements regarding character arcs or final season scope. Netflix's official release schedule and any preview materials released in autumn 2026 will provide concrete information on which characters feature prominently. Industry reporting on showrunner interviews may signal thematic direction—whether the finale emphasises tragic resolution or redemptive endings. The settlement window's extension to mid-2027 allows for post-broadcast confirmation of any ambiguous deaths requiring narrative clarification.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $830 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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